Construction of a prognostic model for metachronous liver metastasis of gastric cancer based on ultrasound and clinical characteristics

doi:10.13418/j.issn.1001-165x.2026.1.17

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Chinese Journal of Clinical Anatomy ›› 2026, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1) : 109-116. DOI: 10.13418/j.issn.1001-165x.2026.1.17

Construction of a prognostic model for metachronous liver metastasis of gastric cancer based on ultrasound and clinical characteristics

Chen Xi¹, Wang Likun¹, Sun Gaixia², Wu Xueliang³

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Abstract

Objective To construct a prognostic model for predicting metachronous liver metastasis (MLM) in gastric cancer (GC) based on multidimensional factors, including ultrasound and clinical characteristics. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 152 patients with gastric cancer treated between June 2021 and June 2023. They were divided into a metastasis group (n=52) and a non-metastasis group (n=100). Clinical and ultrasound features were compared between the two groups. Independent risk factors were identified through logistic regression analysis to construct the predictive model. The model's performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Body mass index (BMI), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), intraoperative blood loss, aspect ratio, tumor diameter, morphology, margin, and calcification were identified as independent risk factors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the constructed model was 0.843, with a sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 64.6%. Internal validation via bootstrap resampling demonstrated an AUC of 0.856, sensitivity of 86.8%, and specificity of 68.9%. Conclusions The prognostic model based on ultrasound and clinical characteristics effectively evaluates the risk of metachronous liver metastasis in gastric cancer.

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Ultrasonography / / / Clinical characteristics / / / Metachronous hepatic metastasis in gastric cancer / / / Prognosis / / / Model

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Chen Xi, Wang Likun, Sun Gaixia, Wu Xueliang. Construction of a prognostic model for metachronous liver metastasis of gastric cancer based on ultrasound and clinical characteristics[J]. Chinese Journal of Clinical Anatomy. 2026, 44(1): 109-116 https://doi.org/10.13418/j.issn.1001-165x.2026.1.17

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